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Extract taken from S.A. Politics Unspun and published with permission from Two Dogs, an imprint of Burnet Media.
For more information about the book, scroll to the bottom.
Also read part 1 and part 2.
Parliament and beyond
The first time the new MPs meet in the National Assembly they hold a vote for the role of president. As our politics currently stands, this is a formality; everyone knows that the face next to “ANC” on the voting ballot is certain to be the country’s next president.
Still, candidates are nominated and a contest is held, with MPs voting loyally according to the party line. So if the ANC wants Jacob Zuma to be president, Jacob Zuma becomes president.
Only when the winning party receives less than 50 percent of the national vote – perhaps when Jesus comes again – will this parliamentary vote hold any actual drama.
This is the real end point of the general election process. Once a person is elected president by Parliament, he forms a Cabinet and everything moves on from there.
Bring on 2014
As a general rule across Africa, the longer the fight for independence and freedom, the more people vote in elections.
In South Africa we saw nearly 20 million people, almost every eligible person, voting in 1994; the numbers came down substantially after that, to less than 15 million in 2004, but rose again to 17 million in 2009.
The current trends are seeing more and more black voters not bothering to go to the polls, while more and more minority voters are taking the trouble to vote (mostly for the DA).
On one level this looks like simple dissatisfaction with the ANC, but it’s more complicated than that and also has to do with a perception that the ANC is going to win anyway.
Predicting elections is asking for trouble. But give us a moment, and we’ll get there. First, here are the trends that matter.
The 2014 national elections will have a lower turnout than those before. If you live in a rural area, you will probably vote for the ANC, and Jacob Zuma. If you live in an urban area, it’s more complex; you may vote for the ANC or you may not. It seems hard to believe that support for the ANC in general, and Zuma in particular, has grown in urban areas in the last five years.
That could well lead to a decrease in votes for the party. The other massive variable comes in the form of the one million people who voted for Cope in 2009: will they vote for them again, or for Agang, or possibly the DA?
Now, let’s take the plunge:
This prediction comes with a health warning. This is not a science. And when you get it wrong, as one almost inevitably does, the result is less than artistic.
Bear in mind that elections are that time when the differing focuses of various parties comes into play. The ANC talks up its history, its great leaders of the past, the fact it liberated the country, etc etc.
The DA tries to claim it’s the party of the future, that its service delivery record is better, its T-shirt’s sexier, and so on.
It’s an election. Don’t believe everything they say.
Read: part 1; part 2
About the book:
South African politics is a murky, convoluted, complicated, cut-throat world that not many people fully understand.
- How does it all work?
- What does Trevor Manuel actually do these days?
- Is Julius Malema really finished?
- Will Cyril Ramaphosa be our next president?
- How long will Jacob Zuma rule for?
- Who really matters in our politics?
- And what’s going to happen at the next elections?
Premier SA political analyst and commentator Stephen Grootes cuts through the incomprehensible political spin and media coverage out there to provide an accessible, attractive, easy-to-read road map to South African politics.
Visit Kalahari.com to purchase a copy of S.A. Politics Unspun.
Read this book yet? Tell us what you thought of the book in the comment box below.
Sign up for Women24 book club newsletter and stand a chance to win our top ten books from kalahari.com.
Follow Women24 on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
For more information about the book, scroll to the bottom.
Also read part 1 and part 2.
Parliament and beyond
The first time the new MPs meet in the National Assembly they hold a vote for the role of president. As our politics currently stands, this is a formality; everyone knows that the face next to “ANC” on the voting ballot is certain to be the country’s next president.
Still, candidates are nominated and a contest is held, with MPs voting loyally according to the party line. So if the ANC wants Jacob Zuma to be president, Jacob Zuma becomes president.
Only when the winning party receives less than 50 percent of the national vote – perhaps when Jesus comes again – will this parliamentary vote hold any actual drama.
This is the real end point of the general election process. Once a person is elected president by Parliament, he forms a Cabinet and everything moves on from there.
Bring on 2014
As a general rule across Africa, the longer the fight for independence and freedom, the more people vote in elections.
In South Africa we saw nearly 20 million people, almost every eligible person, voting in 1994; the numbers came down substantially after that, to less than 15 million in 2004, but rose again to 17 million in 2009.
The current trends are seeing more and more black voters not bothering to go to the polls, while more and more minority voters are taking the trouble to vote (mostly for the DA).
On one level this looks like simple dissatisfaction with the ANC, but it’s more complicated than that and also has to do with a perception that the ANC is going to win anyway.
Predicting elections is asking for trouble. But give us a moment, and we’ll get there. First, here are the trends that matter.
The 2014 national elections will have a lower turnout than those before. If you live in a rural area, you will probably vote for the ANC, and Jacob Zuma. If you live in an urban area, it’s more complex; you may vote for the ANC or you may not. It seems hard to believe that support for the ANC in general, and Zuma in particular, has grown in urban areas in the last five years.
That could well lead to a decrease in votes for the party. The other massive variable comes in the form of the one million people who voted for Cope in 2009: will they vote for them again, or for Agang, or possibly the DA?
Now, let’s take the plunge:
This prediction comes with a health warning. This is not a science. And when you get it wrong, as one almost inevitably does, the result is less than artistic.
Bear in mind that elections are that time when the differing focuses of various parties comes into play. The ANC talks up its history, its great leaders of the past, the fact it liberated the country, etc etc.
The DA tries to claim it’s the party of the future, that its service delivery record is better, its T-shirt’s sexier, and so on.
It’s an election. Don’t believe everything they say.
Read: part 1; part 2
About the book:
South African politics is a murky, convoluted, complicated, cut-throat world that not many people fully understand.
- How does it all work?
- What does Trevor Manuel actually do these days?
- Is Julius Malema really finished?
- Will Cyril Ramaphosa be our next president?
- How long will Jacob Zuma rule for?
- Who really matters in our politics?
- And what’s going to happen at the next elections?
Premier SA political analyst and commentator Stephen Grootes cuts through the incomprehensible political spin and media coverage out there to provide an accessible, attractive, easy-to-read road map to South African politics.
Visit Kalahari.com to purchase a copy of S.A. Politics Unspun.
Read this book yet? Tell us what you thought of the book in the comment box below.
Sign up for Women24 book club newsletter and stand a chance to win our top ten books from kalahari.com.
Follow Women24 on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
