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Based on the current oil, international fuel and rand prices, the latest data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) shows that petrol prices could be cut by around R1.90 a litre in November, while diesel prices could be lowered by between 69c and 75c a litre.
However, there are still more than two weeks to go before the final prices are set. Fuel prices will only be adjusted on 1 November.
South African fuel prices are largely determined by international oil costs and the rand exchange rate, as oil is priced in dollars.
Oil prices have been extremely volatile as fighting between Israel and Hamas militants in Gaza continued.
A wider war in the oil-rich Middle East risks hitting supplies, which could push prices higher. However, a war could also tip the world economy into recession, cooling demand for fuel.
In the first half of October, the Brent crude oil price averaged $87.50 a barrel, compared to an average of $92.60 in September, says Annabel Bishop, group chief economist at Investec.
International petroleum product prices used in South Africa are substantially lower to date in October than September, she added.
"On a rand basis, too, oil prices are lower to date in October, averaging R1 665/barrel for October, compared to September’s first half of the month, which saw the rand Brent crude oil price average R1 715/barrel."
After briefly weakening to above R19.50/$ last week, the rand was trading at R18.77/$ on Monday afternoon. It started the month at R18.90.
Fuel prices have seen large hikes in recent months, due in most part to a rally in oil prices. Petrol (95 unleaded) now retails for R25.68 a litre in Gauteng, from R21.40 at the start of 2023. The wholesale price of diesel in Gauteng is now R25.01 a litre, from R19.31 as recently as June this year.
