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Based on the current oil, international fuel and rand prices, the latest data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) shows that petrol prices could be cut by around R1.07 a litre in December, while diesel prices could be lowered by around R2.10 a litre.
However, there is still more than two weeks to go before the final prices are set. Fuel prices will only be adjusted on 6 December.
South African fuel prices are largely determined by international oil costs and the rand exchange rate, as oil is priced in dollars.
The price of Brent crude oil traded above $86 a barrel at the start of November but has since fallen to around $82.
Oil rallied in recent weeks amid concerns that the Israel-Hamas conflict would disrupt supplies. However, the price surge has petered out as traders worry about oil demand, especially as the Chinese economy remains weak.
This week, the International Energy Agency said global oil markets won’t be as tight as expected this quarter, with production growth in the US and Brazil beating forecasts, Bloomberg reports.
After spiking to above R18.70/$ recently, the rand has strengthened quickly to R18.20 this week as the dollar came under big pressure. Weaker-than-expected inflation data in the US has fuelled expectations that the Fed won't hike interest rates any further, which will make the dollar more unattractive for investors looking for yield.
If the current fuel price cuts pan out, it will be the second consecutive month of decreases. In November, the price of petrol was lowered by R1.78 a litre to the lowest level since August, while diesel was cut by more than 80c.
