Rwanda 'secures' airspace in anticipation of DRC's 'intention to invade'

• Rwanda says it is securing its airspace in anticipation of attacks from Burundi and the DRC.
• The US says Rwanda must withdraw its forces from the DRC and stop supporting M23 rebels for the sake of peace.
• Rwanda says the international community’s indifference to the DRC’s dramatic military buildup is allowing regional tensions to escalate.

Rwanda says it has secured its airspace in anticipation of attacks from Burundi and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), which it accuses of using Chinese attack drones. 

Early this year, the DRC and Burundi formed a pact to deal with two rebel groups: the M23 fighting in eastern DRC, and the RED Tabara rebels based in eastern DRC and launching attacks into Burundi.

Numerous human rights reports have linked the rebel groups to Rwanda, despite Kigali's spirited denials.

The threat of war from Burundi and the DRC are real, according to Rwandan President Paul Kagame.

"The Congolese political and military leadership, including President Félix Tshisekedi, has also repeatedly declared their intention to invade Rwanda and change its government by force," the Rwandan government said in a statement.

"Rwanda takes them at their word and has adjusted our posture accordingly. 

"This includes measures to ensure complete air defence of Rwandan territory and to degrade offensive air capabilities following the introduction of advanced Chinese CH-4 attack drones by the DRC in 2023, and repeated violations of Rwandan airspace by Congolese fighter jets."

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The US has called on Kigali to cease firing rockets because they could cause harm to civilians, as well as people working for humanitarian aid agencies and the UN.

But it has also blamed Rwanda for supporting the rebels and has called for Kigali to withdraw its forces from the DRC.

"The United States condemns Rwanda's support for the M23 armed group and calls on Rwanda to immediately withdraw all Rwanda Defence Force personnel from the DRC and remove its surface-to-air missile systems, which threaten the lives of civilians, UN and other regional peacekeepers, humanitarian actors, and commercial flights in the eastern DRC," US State Department spokesperson Mathew Miller said.

In November last year, the US dispatched Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines to Rwanda and the DRC ahead of the latter's 20 December general elections.

It is largely believed that Haines' visit was behind the mini-truce in eastern DRC. 

During her visit, she emphasised the importance of the Luanda and Nairobi processes.

Rwanda said the latest accusations by the US sounded like a shift in policy.

"Rwanda will seek clarification from the US government to ascertain whether its statement represents an abrupt shift in policy or simply a lack of internal coordination," it added.

Eastern DRC escalation

Since the arrival of the SA-led SADC force (SAMIDRC) in the DRC on 15 December, there have been exchanges of heavy gunfire between the allied forces and the M23.

Miller said: "The United States strongly condemns the worsening violence in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) caused by the actions of the Rwanda-backed, US- and UN-sanctioned M23 armed group, including its recent incursions into the town of Sake."

The US said the escalation had put millions at risk who were already "exposed to human rights abuses, including displacement, deprivation, and attacks".

Eric Batonon, the Norwegian Refugee Council's (NRC) country director, is worried that civilians have been caught in the crossfire.

He urged both the SAMIDRC and M23 to abide by international law.

"We are deeply concerned about the escalating violence and its devastating impact on innocent lives. The targeting of civilians, including women, children, and the elderly, is unacceptable and must stop immediately,” he said.

The fighting in North Kivu has put a strain on Goma, the provincial capital, which is home to at least two million people, but now dealing with hundreds of thousands of  internally displaced persons (IDPs) as well.

Estimates are that:

• There are 5.8 million internally displaced persons in Ituri, North Kivu, South Kivu and Tanganyika, according to the United Nations Refugee Agency.
• Humanitarian organisations believe that approximately one million people have been displaced since November 2023.
• Between 2 and 7 February this year, it is reported that 35 000 displaced persons had moved to Goma. Others have sought shelter in schools, churches, and other improvised settlements. 

Rwanda partly blames the DRC conflict on the latter's support for the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), a rebel group launching attacks into its territory.

The US has also urged the DRC to stop supporting FDLR because they are a "negative force".

Rwanda responds

Last week, Rwanda wrote to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), encouraging the body not to support the SAMIDRC in any way because it could lead to an escalation of the conflict.

In response to the US's direct blame of Rwanda, Kigali said was the DRC that was not cooperating in terms of the Luanda and Nairobi processes.

Kigali raised concern about what it called "the international community’s indifference to the DRC’s dramatic military build-up."

It added that the reason behind the recent escalation was that the DRC was striking war by expelling the East African Community (EAC) peacekeeping force in favour of the SAMIDRC.

"The recent M23 advances are due to the DRC's decision to expel the East African Community Regional Force in December 2023, which oversaw ceasefire and withdrawal efforts," reads the statement.

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Rwanda claimed that the DRC had responsibility for protecting the rights and lives of Congolese Tutsis. 

It argued that the repeated failure to do so had resulted in 30 years of strife and instability across the Great Lakes region.

Hundreds of thousands of Congolese Tutsis have been living as refugees in east Africa for decades, and largely forgotten, Rwanda said.

It added that it would not accept blame for the existence of the M23.

"Taken together, these facts represent a serious threat to Rwanda's national security. 

"Because of that growing risk, Rwanda’s position is that the M23 issue must be resolved politically amongst Congolese. It will not be accepted for the problem to be externalised into Rwanda by force once again."

On the sidelines of the recent African Union 37th summit, regional heads of state held a mini summit about the security situation in the DRC. While Kagame attended the meeting, Tshisekedi snubbed it.