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Theuns Eloff writes the time for political change has come, if one considers the state of the country. He asks whether South Africans ready and willing to cross the ANC Rubicon.
On 15 August 1985, there were considerable expectations in enlightened National Party circles that the then state president, Mr PW Botha, would commit himself and the government to wide-ranging political reforms. His public speech in Durban would have crossed the proverbial Rubicon (river), just like Julius Caesar did in 49 BC.
To cross the Rubicon came to have the meaning of committing oneself to a plan of action or strategy that is irreversible. In PW Botha's case, however, it did not happen and from that day onwards, international pressure and financial sanctions increased hand over hand.
Today, nearly 40 years later, there is yet again a Rubicon to cross, but this time it is not the apartheid Rubicon, but the ANC Rubicon. To cross this imaginary river, is to commit oneself to see the possibility and necessity of a future without the ANC government, and even to work towards that.
The ANC, a once powerful liberation movement, has shrivelled into a gang of corrupt villains who live in their self-created bubble. They are without imagination, without plans and without competence. The organisation has had almost 30 years to serve South Africa and her people. But they have not only not done enough for people of South Africa, they have also failed miserably even to start to satisfy the most basic needs of the majority of the population.
The time for political change has come. The country needs something and someone else – and if one considers the sad state of the country, one can even say that anything would be better than the ANC. But are South Africans ready and willing to cross the ANC Rubicon?
ANC supporters and the Rubicon
In ANC ranks, there are various groupings for which this issue is relevant.
In the first place, there are those who are still on this side of the Rubicon and who hope that the ANC can reform itself, can be reformed from the outside or that the "good people" in the ANC will eventually gain the upper hand and give new momentum to the organisation.
The new leadership of Defend Our Democracy (DoD) seems to fall into this category. As someone remarked: the majority of organsations in DoD want to protect and defend our democracy – as long as the ANC remains in power. This grouping will yet again vote ANC- in spite of everything that every South African can see every day. They remain "progressive" and argue that there is no alternative to the ANC.
Then there are those who have put their toes into the Rubicon, who are already disenchanted and regularly bitterly criticise and slander the ANC and its leadership in private. Unless something worse happens, they would probably vote for the ANC again or not vote at all. Quite a number of the ANC veterans fall into this category. They merely show signs of loyal resistance.
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A third group in the ANC are already in the middle of the Rubicon, between an ANC future and another party. They understand that the organisation has reached the end of its useful life and its reason d’être but are struggling to process and accept this emotionally. They are the openly disgruntled and are potentially people who would vote for a black alternative party (such as BOSA or Rise Mzansi). They would be able to cross the Rubicon fully in the months leading to the election, especially if they can see that there is an alternative to the ANC – even if it is a coalition of several parties.
And then there are those that have, since the Zuma years and the Zondo report, already crossed the ANC Rubicon, who can already envision a political future without the ANC and even welcome it. Some of them are already part of supporters of parties such as Action SA, the IFP, BOSA and Rise Mzansi and are ripe to vote for a legitimate coalition. Among them is also a black middle class who does not see the ANC anymore as a party who can satisfy their needs.
But the ANC Rubicon must also be crossed by non-ANC people and supporters.
The youth and the ANC Rubicon
There is a large group of potential voters (mostly youths between 18 and 32) that are not politically conscious or active and who have not even registered as voters or if registered, have not ever voted. This group consists of more than 15 million people, and comprises the most fertile ground for a political alternative. They are not even aware that an ANC Rubicon exists but would easily accept the concept of a political future without the ANC – if presented with a viable alternative. And they could – probably through some form of incentivisation – be convinced to register as voters. The parties other than the ANC will then have the task of convincing them to vote for them (and not the ANC).
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Big business and the ANC Rubicon
Big business will also have to cross the ANC Rubicon. They will have to accept that, in spite of lucrative contracts and other state business, they would be on the wrong side of history if they did not cross the Rubicon now and envisage a future without the ANC government. This is true, especially if they keep on trying to help the ANC out of its self-made trouble – like traveling to Washington to try to clear up the mess the ANC created with its stance on Russia. They act in exactly the same way big business did in the late eighties and early nineties – they also could not see that days of the apartheid government were numbered and that the highest form of patriotism would be to work for a new dispensation. The least one can expect from the business sector is to launch or support a massive campaign to convince especially young people to register as voters and to vote – just as big business did before 1994 with the Business Election Fund.
The Christian churches and the ANC Rubicon
The Christian churches (especially the South African Council of Churches) and other faith-based communities will also have to cross the ANC Rubicon. Any legitimacy that they previously afforded the ANC in its struggle has now been renounced and destroyed by the immoral actions of the organisation.
Individual church leaders, such as archbishop Thabo Makgoba, have indeed criticised the ANC government publicly, but others are still on this side of the Rubicon, hoping and praying that the ANC will correct itself. But considering the deep the decay of the ANC (in terms of morality and organisational ability), this hope is not one based on reality. They remind one of the Afrikaans churches in the dying days of apartheid. Fortunately, there are indications that the traditional Afrikaans churches might, this time, fulfill their prophetic function properly. This may also be true of members of the Jewish Board of Deputies.
Civil society organisations and the ANC Rubicon
Non-profit organisations (of which there are literally thousands in South Africa) are to some degree, more independent from the ANC government, as most of them do not receive state subsidies and support. Be that as it may, they, too will have to cross the ANC Rubicon to support a political alternative and work for a better future.
Racial minorities and the ANC Rubicon
But even members of minority groups will have to cross the ANC Rubicon. As the hope some of them put in Cyril Ramaphosa faded away, they became disenchanted and withdrew from public life and politics. Others are spreading the word that, especially now, minorities should vote for Ramaphosa and the ANC, so that he and the ANC would not need to go into a coalition with the EFF. Because, they say, South Africa and its economy could not survive five years of an ANC-EFF coalition. However undesirable, such a situation would be, this argument represents an Armageddon approach that has never been based on South Africa’s history or reality. The well-known commentator RW Johnson had already written in the late seventies that South Africa has only five years left. And yet, here we are. The corrupt and incompetent people in the ANC, linked with the arrogance and hubris of the EFF, will just hasten the demise of both organisations.
Others in the minority groups hope that, if the ANC falls below 50% and nearer to 40%, an ANC-DA coalition will happen. Such a hope presupposes that the "good ANC" would some or other time miraculously get the upper hand, govern better with the help of the DA and keep Julius Malema and co in check. Ramaphosa has, however, time and again proven that he has neither the political will and/or the backbone to kick the crooks and incompetents out of ANC and government top ranks. These people and the deep rot in the ANC will make a severe dent on the DA’s record of and reputation for good governance, and will not help the ANC’s demise in 2029.The point is: minorities must also cross the ANC Rubicon and rather work for a different and better future.
Potential on the other side
The ANC Rubicon is a real obstacle on the way to the necessary and inevitable political change that is coming in South Africa. The other side of this Rubicon does not necessarily represent moonshine and roses, as the national coalition path is an unknown and difficult one. But on the other side of the ANC Rubicon, there is at least more potential to give ordinary South Africans the real possibility of a better life and hope for the future. And that, as was the case with Julius Caesar, is an irreversible step that must be taken.
- Theuns Eloff is an independent commentator. This is a slightly revised version of an article that was first published on Netwerk24.
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