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We can either remain extremely pessimistic about our future and remain in our laagers or we can embrace the challenges ahead and decide to do it together as a nation, securing our and our children's future, writes Oscar van Heerden.
After spending a delightful few days in Tietiesbaai (Paternoster) on the west coast at our annual pilgrimage, "Jazz on the Rocks", it struck me how many of the people I interacted with were concerned with the state of our nation.
Each asked the most pertinent questions, such as whether we are succeeding as a country and how will we overcome the many challenges we currently face.
I might add answers were varied, and there was also a healthy dose of ideological differences.
I hear you ask why that would be the case? Because in finding answers, one's analysis, unfortunately, cannot be restricted to only domestic realities.
Capitalism and its state in global politics must be placed under the microscope, just like alternatives like democratic socialism, such as the Scandinavian countries and socialism with Chinese characteristics.
Are these working in their respective countries, and what lessons can we draw from them? The tools of analysis that were brought to bear were impressive, to say the least, but agreement on a single strategy was where we could not coalesce around.
Impact of instability
Interestingly, everyone embraced and agreed upon the vision for Mzansi. Our constitutional democracy must remain and indeed must be defended at all costs, and the basic vision enshrined in the Constitution.
Indeed, striving towards a non-racial, non-sexist, democratic and prosperous South Africa must remain the bedrock principle.
The problematique was well understood by all actually. Crime is off the charts with violent contact crime being the highest in the world. One commentator indicated the murder levels in just over three months were akin to the war in Ukraine.
The instability politically and economically on the rest of the African continent, coupled with poor border controls, also hugely impacts negatively on the country.
An influx of refugees and immigrants, both legitimate and illegitimate, has contributed, on the one hand, to many low-level jobs being occupied by foreigners - Uber drivers, deliveries, restaurants and hotels and so on.
In addition, the involvement of some foreigners in the vandalisation of public infrastructure, such as cable theft, cash-in-transit heists and illegal mining, leads to animosity between locals and foreigners.
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The construction mafia, extortion of local businesses, and taxi mafia bosses encourage and facilitate the destruction of public infrastructure.
Rail, in particular, has been hard hit since this is in direct competition to their bottom lines. The economy is not growing at the requisite rate and coupled with that, unemployment remains high.
Even with the additional seven million citizens on social grants, we remain the most unequal society in the world.
Gender-based violence is so out of control in South Africa it makes us as men look psychopathic.
In other words, we are affected by or constitute a chronic mental disorder with extreme or violent social behaviour. As men, we are characterised as exhibiting unstable and aggressive or obsessive behaviour towards women and girl children, in particular. It is so sickening.
The class question as well as the national question (race), also hangs in the balance even though we are celebrating 29 years of democracy.
So, where does that leave us with regard to National Development Plan 2030. The very vision we set out for ourselves. With only seven more years to go, what progress have we made in pursuit of its objectives?
Let me be clear from the start: I am not going to engage in a blow-by-blow account of what is set out in the National Development Plan and whether we as a country and government have met such obligations. That I will leave to more competent people.
Four scenarios
I do, however, want to explore in the context of where we find ourselves today, post-the State of the Nation Address by President Cyril Ramaphosa and the Budget Speech 2023 by Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana.
What should we be thinking about as a form of a contribution to a way forward for our beloved country? Frans Cronje from the Centre for Risk Analysis, as far back as 2018, already engaged on this very question and explored four scenarios towards 2030.
I briefly took some of the people at Tietiesbaai through these, and it certainly made for interesting deliberations.
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Under the "Rise of the right" scenario, an authoritarian state drives a growth-focused policy reform process.
African-Tiger, closeness to China, pragmatism trumps ideology and growth and investment recovery. Remember Singapore? This is the model proposed here.
Basically, criminalise poverty, homeless people living illegally in the cities must be removed by force, and no littering allowed. A police state in which zero tolerance is the order of the day.
Protests are violently put down by competent police, and inner-city police and railway police are reintroduced. Law and order will be the motto. Strict enforcement of by-laws regarding public spaces, buildings and infrastructure will remain enforced.
The argument is that when there is order, everyone understands the repercussions. If you obey the law, then growth, investment through investor confidence and stability will follow.
Under the second scenario, "Tyranny of the left", a populist ideology trumps pragmatism. Property and civil rights are eroded, closeness to pariah states, economic deterioration with aid inflows and destructive racial nationalism.
Many a country post-colonialism in Africa followed this trajectory and failed to take their respective countries to greater heights and improve the living conditions for their peoples.
We already see the unease from our unions both in the public sector and elsewhere as they, too, struggle to keep afloat with rising inflation and the overall cost of living. In this scenario, it would be a free for all, and we would all soon find ourselves at the bottom of the barrel. Like rats, we will begin to eat each other for survival.
Mandate for structural reform
Under the third scenario, "Rise of the rainbow", the government follows the popular mandate for structural reform so desperately needed.
Anti-investment hostility dissipates, rule of law is strongly in evidence, private sector-driven recovery in most areas of the economy, and there's a rapid uptake in FDI and trade.
If the State of the Nation Address by the president is anything to go by, plus the measured Budget Speech from the finance minister, then one can observe this scenario is what they both are hoping and striving for. But hope and wishes don't always get you what you want. Hard work and perseverance do.
Finally, under the "The break-up" scenario, contested politics continue unabated, creating political instability, contradictory policy choices, a relative underperforming economy and societal fragmentation leading to worse class and race politics in the country.
One would hope our democracy has matured enough to avoid such a scenario, but alas, we have seen all sorts of shenanigans before in our body politic.
If the chaos inside the ANC continues and the EFF carries on with its silly disruptive politics, and we continue to see breakaway after breakaway parties being formed, then this scenario is likely to play out.
With the party faithful from all political parties continuing with corrupt practices and malfeasance at almost every level of government, expect the worse indeed.
Having shared these with you, and since you are also acutely aware of the problematique engulfing South Africa, how do you propose we move forward towards 2030?We can either remain extremely pessimistic about our future and remain in our laagers or we can embrace the challenges ahead and decide to do it together as a nation, securing our and our children's future. The ball is squarely in our court. After all, it's our future, so let's make it work.
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