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Ebrahim Fakir | Opinion polls have their uses. They also have their (many) abuses… and abusers

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Opinion polls ahead of elections are often replete with methodological flaws and problems ranging from their sample size through to sample stratification and representativity, sample randomisation, confidence levels, the nature of the actual questions posed and the fact that respondents can be less than honest when polled on sensitive questions of "political choice", writes the author. (Alfonso Nqunjana/News24)
Opinion polls ahead of elections are often replete with methodological flaws and problems ranging from their sample size through to sample stratification and representativity, sample randomisation, confidence levels, the nature of the actual questions posed and the fact that respondents can be less than honest when polled on sensitive questions of "political choice", writes the author. (Alfonso Nqunjana/News24)

Polls have the tendency to trivialise issues, and whatever limited insights they offer are compromised by their inherent limitations, methodological biases, and susceptibility to manipulation, argues Ebrahim Fakir.

It is vital to differentiate between opinion polls that purport to predict election results and those surveys that try to capture public sentiment on issues that range from immigration and xenophobia to attitudes to the National Health Insurance, crime and policing, or the need for land reform, attitudes to reconciliation, or trust and confidence in public institutions. 

Some polls, those which truly provide a "snapshot of attitudes at a particular time", may serve to anticipate shifts in public opinion or accurately gauge the depth of support for certain types of politics and public policy. 

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