Dead in the water (almost): The Blitzboks' unlikely path to direct entry into Olympics

• It's looking unceasingly unlikely that the Blitzboks will qualify directly for the 2024 Olympic Games in Paris.
• The Springbok Sevens side won't qualify unless Australia and Samoa perform terribly at this weekend's London Sevens.
• Failing to qualify directly for the Olympics would leave the Blitzboks needing to win the Rugby Africa Sevens Cup.

The Blitzboks' hopes of achieving direct qualification for next year's Olympic Games in Paris appears dead in the water, unless the Wallabies and Samoa bomb at Twickenham in this weekend's London Sevens.

Sandile Ngcobo's troops currently languish in seventh position on this season's overall World Sevens Series points table, equal on 116 with Samoa and nine behind the Australians on 125.

Qualification criteria dictates that France - who are third on the table anyway - have an automatic spot as next year's showpiece hosts, meaning that technically five instead of the usual four spots were up for grabs.

The All Blacks Sevens (1st), Argentina (2nd) and Fiji (4th) have already secured their respective passages to Paris, leaving one more place open.

If the South Africans are remotely going to squeeze through, they first (and obviously) need to secure more tournament points at Twickenham than Samoa.

But it's the Wallabies who are the real flies in the ointment.

Assuming the best-case scenario of the Blitzboks winning the tournament, they would collect 22 log points and finish the season on 138.

However, for South African purposes, that would mean the Australians can't finish higher than fifth at Twickenham, which would ensure 13 log points and put them tied with South Africa on 138.

In that case, tie-breaker rules would be applicable.

The first metric is points difference, which, if equal, would then move on to the second measure of which team has the superior try-count.

In the highly unlikely event of that also not being able to separate the teams, they would be considered tied though that would mess up the Olympic qualification spot because another one would be needed.

Should the Blitzboks fail to overtake Australia and Samoa, they'll have to secure their Olympic spot by winning the Rugby Africa Sevens Cup, which is scheduled to take place in September in Harare.

And even that regional competition is no guarantee of success. Kenya, who have usually qualified for the showpiece event in that tournament, now have an even bigger incentive to topple the South Africans because their spot is under severe threat.

The Blitzboks commence their London mission on Saturday, but they have been placed in an immensely tough group featuring Great Britain, the USA and the vaunted All Blacks.